Record - 46-30-6 (98 points), 4th in the Central Division
Goals For: 238 (21st in the NHL), Goals Against: 246 (13th in the NHL)
Leading Goal Scorer - Jason Robertson (41)
Leading Point Scorer - Joe Pavelski (81)
Finishing right above Nashville in the wild card and divisional standings was the Dallas Stars. Honestly, I have no idea how they were able to do it. They were the only playoff team with a negative goal differential and losing record on the road. And yet, the Stars came within one goal to take down the powerhouse Calgary Flames in the first round. They were carried by a tremendous top line, great goaltending down the stretch, and an ability to defend home ice. I feel there is no way they can make playoffs again relying so heavily on those three factors. I believe that is what went into the decision to bring in Peter DeBoer as the new Head Coach of the Stars.
Everywhere DeBoer has coached he's had success, specifically in his first year with the team he was coaching at the time. He went to the Stanley Cup Finals in first season with both the Devils and the Sharks. His first full year in Vegas, the team won the division. There seems to be an immediate change for the better when a team hires DeBoer. Rick Bowness did a great job in Dallas, but with the way things went last season and the direction the team is trying to head towards, it was time for a change. The window for the Stars is shrinking, so GM Jim Nill is hoping the DeBoer hiring can elevate his team's chances of making another Cup run.
It could have happened last year if the Stars were able to rally behind Jake Oettingers legendary Game 7 performance in Calgary. He made a Dallas playoff record 64 saves in the overtime loss, and saved 95% of the shots he faced over the course of the series. The Stars just couldn't score that one goal they needed on the road, something that was the team's Achilles' heel in the regular season. To win in playoffs, you not only have to be able to score, but also win on the road. These are two things the needs to seriously focus on in their first year with DeBoer as their coach.
To get more scoring means that the Stars will need more production from players not named Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, or Joe Pavelski. Those three players alone accounted for 45% of the teams total goals. If you add Tyler Seguin's 24 goals to the mix, then you have 55% of the goals being scored by four players. They need more support offensively. I just don't know where they're going to find it. Jamie Benn isn't the same player he was before the pandemic. The Warthog, Alexander Radulov, is going back to the KHL. Their top defenseman and quarterback of their powerplay, John Klingberg, signed a one-year deal with the Ducks this offseason. With the departure of Klingberg and Radulov on top of Benn's decline in offensive output, someone on this team will need to step up big time if the Stars want to make the postseason again. Who it will be is the $64,000 question.
Maybe that guy could be Mason Marchment. Signing a four-year, $18 million contract this offseason, Marchment is coming off of his best season as a pro. Last year with the Panthers, he scored 18 goals and tallied 47 points while only playing 14 minutes per night. He also finished 18th in Selke voting for his 200 foot brand of hockey. His size, skill, and physical style of play is something that will compliment Tyler Seguin and Denis Gurianov quite nicely if he is in fact paired on a line with them. Both Seguin and Gurianov are looking to get on the scoresheet more, each for different reasons. For Seguin, it's because of the run of bad luck he's had with injuries the past few years. Following their loss to Tampa in the 2020 Stanley Cup Finals , Seguin underwent surgery where doctors basically had to restructure his whole quad. He missed 53 of the 56 games in the bubble season, and had a very slow start to 2022. He still ended up with 24 goals, but after having a run of six consecutive 70 point campaigns, he's just not the same player. Gurianov, on the other hand, is simply looking to make the most of a new opportunity. He was terrific in his rookie season where he scored 20 goals in the regular season and added 9 more in the postseason. Since then, however, he hasn't measured out to what the Stars had hoped for him. I can't put my finger on why, but he just didn't seem confident to me with Rick Bowness behind the bench. Hopefully, he finds that confidence again with the coaching change.
Miro Heiskanen is another player that will need to step up offensively. With the departure of John Klingberg, Heiskanen will now be running a very talented Stars powerplay. We know what he can do on the defensive side of the puck, receiving Norris votes in two of his first four seasons. Offensively, though, he hasn't produced nearly as much as many would expect him too with the amount of talent he possesses. We've seen the glimpses of greatness from the young Finnish blue-liner. The second shift of his career had hockey Twitter losing their minds at how good he was going to be. He was arguably the biggest reason the Stars made the Stanley Cup Finals in 2020. He led the team with 26 points, which is unheard of from defensemen. In fact, Heiskanen's performance in the 2020 playoffs ranks 5th all time for points by a defenseman in a single postseason. But outside of that, he hasn't put up big numbers yet. We know he's more than capable of exploding offensively. He just has to go out and do it.
The question marks surrounding this team don't deal with their top line. Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Joe Pavelski make up one of the most dangerous tandems in all of hockey and will continue to wreak havoc on opponents in 2023. Robertson is a stud. Plain and simple. This kid is such a gifted player it wouldn't surprise me if he's in the running for the Richard and Art Ross trophies this year. They still need to work out a deal for the young RFA, but I'm not too worried about that. With Hintz, I see him more as a Selke candidate than the Art Ross. He's a complete 200 foot player that can play in every situation effectively. Whether the Stars are a man up, a man down, or at even strength, Hintz can be found on the ice. He's a terrific all around player. Then there's one of my all time favorite players in Joe Pavelski. As the old man of Stars roster, Pavelski led the team in points with a career high of 81. He may be well on the wrong side of 30, but I can definitely see him getting the 76 points he needs to get to 1000 for his career.
Goaltending is another area that doesn't concern me with this Stars' club. Jake Oettinger stepped up in a big way last year, winning 30 of his 46 starts becoming the clear cut number one option for them. He was brilliant in the series against Calgary, giving up just 15 goals in 7 games. This sensational performance earned the Otter a nice $12 million extension to stay in the Big D through 2025. I think this is an absolute steal for Jim Nill and company as Oettinger is just 23 years old and already is one of the better goalies in the game. He's for sure a sleeper pick for the Vezina this year.
Unfortunately though, I only see this team going as far as Oettinger and the Robertson line take them. There just aren't enough scoring options for them to sustain success over an 82 game season. DeBoer is a great coach and I'm he'll get the most out if his players, but you can only win so many games when you simply don't have the strongest of rosters. I don't want to completely write this team off because they do have sufficient talent, but with the way the Western Conference is shaping up this year, I have them on the outside looking in. Maybe they'll prove me wrong, but I have a good hunch that they won't.
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