Record - 54-21-7 (115 points), 2nd in the Atlantic Division
Goals For: 315 (2nd in the NHL), Goals Against: 253 (18th in the NHL)
Leading Goal Scorer - Auston Matthews (60)
Leading Point Scorer - Auston Matthews (106)
It must be hard being a Toronto Maple Leafs' fan. Actually it must be pure torture to be a Leafs' fan. Many of the younger fans were not alive yet or too young to remember the team's last playoff series win in 2004. Even more of them were yet to be born to have been able to see them hoist their most recent Stanley Cup in 1967. Their 55 years without a Cup is the longest championship drought in the history of the NHL. They've come close, but never were able to come out on top. They've had some very good teams since drafting Auston Matthews in 2016, but have been unable to go anywhere with them. The Leafs have been ousted in the first round every year since Matthews burst onto the scene. There's more pressure on this team than there ever has been, which leads me to believe that we may see some major changes in personnel if they aren't able to get anything done in playoffs next spring.
Last year was Toronto's best season in their 105 year history. They recorded a franchise record 54 wins which also marked the first time that the team had ever reached 50 wins in a season. They Leafs played a consistent brand of hockey for all 82 games. There were only two instances all year where they had a winless stretch of at least three games. HC Sheldon Keefe was terrific all season behind the bench getting the most of his players night in and night out. They had the best powerplay in the league converting at an outrageous 27% clip, and they also had a top 10 penalty kill. An underrated metric that the Leafs were best was faceoffs. The Leafs led the league in faceoff percentage winning 55% of their draws. This is something that will come in handy for them when they do eventually make a run.
As far as individual players go you have to look at Auston Matthews first. He had the highest scoring season in Maple Leafs' history with 60 goals, becoming the first player in the NHL to score 60 since Steven Stamkos did it in 2012. Matthews also became the first player to score 50 goals in a 50 game span since Mario Lemieux did so in 1996. He was a man possessed last year and earned himself the MVP honors as well as the Ted Lindsay award given to most outstanding player in hockey which is voted by his peers in the NHLPA. Matthews' didn't do it alone as he had a terrific ensemble of players around him that elevated their games to new heights as well. Mitch Marner notched his first 30 goal season and tallied a career high 97 points. William Nylander put together his first 80 point season. Captain John Tavares had himself another 75 point campaign. Defenseman Morgan Reilly almost had 70 points from the backend. Michael Bunting led all rookies with 63 points, finishing second in Calder voting. This team was loaded offensively. If there was ever a year for the Leafs to win their first playoff series since 2004, this was the year.
Unless, of course, you run into the back to back Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning in the opening round. People were writing the Leafs off before the season even started, and I don't blame them for doing so. It'd been 18 years without a series win and Tampa had won eight in a row. While I had a little bit more belief in this team breaking the curse, I did end up picking the Bolts to advance. It took a few games before these teams settled in against each other. They split the first four, and none of the games were particularly close. Game 5 in Toronto is where things started to get exciting. The Lightning jumped out to a 2-0 lead after the first period. Jack Campbell stood on his head in the period keeping his team within. Then early in the second Tampa took an uncharacteristically bad too many men penalty that gave the Leafs a spark. John Tavares deflected a William Nylander wrister from the point on the ensuing powerplay to cut the lead in half. The Leafs would go on to score three more goals in the third with Auston Matthews potting the game winner with around six minutes to go. One more win and they'd take down the champs.
Game 6 was right there for the taking for them. The Leafs overcame another two-goal deficit, storming back and scoring three straight to take a one goal lead with 20 minutes left to play. Tampa pushed hard early in the third and were able to draw a pair of high sticking penalities to put them on a long 2-man advantage. Toronto did all they could but it was a Nikita Kucherov shot through traffic from the high slot that knotted it up at three a piece. Campbell just wasn't able to track the puck, and by the time he got eyes on it the puck was already in the back of the net. This one would require overtime where both teams scratched and clawed desperately to get that winning goal. Toronto had plenty of chances to close out the series, but it was a Brayden Point goal off a rebound late in the OT period that forced a seventh game at Scotiabank Arena.
There was one question I asked myself when I was making my pick for this series. Who would I rather have as my goalie in a Game 7, Jack Campbell or Andrei Vasilevskiy? The answer was obviously Vasi, which is why I ended up going with Tampa. It proved to be the difference in the final game of this back and forth series. Campbell played great, but Vasi was a brick wall. He put everything the Leafs threw at him aside. Nick Paul put the Lightning up 2-1 late in the second, and you just got the sense that that would be all they needed to win. In the third the Leafs did everything but put one through. They just couldn't get anything past the 2021 Conn Smythe winner. Tampa would wind up winning 2-1, and the Leafs' winless streak and cup drought would live on for another year. They've had some heartbreaking losses in the past, but this one was really tough to watch. They did everything they needed to do to win except score the last goal.
GM Kyle Dubas is entering the final year of his five-year contract. The Leafs have had plenty of regular season success during his tenure. But as we're all very much aware at this point, they haven't gotten it done in playoffs. He's skating on very thin ice after the loss to Tampa. If this team isn't able to do something when next year's playoffs rolls around then he'll be looking for a job elsewhere and the Maple Leafs will be looking for a new general manager.
I'm not sure if there's anyone in the league that's on as hot a seat as Kyle Dubas is. He is definitely aware of this, and yet for some reason, Dubas is flying as close to the sun as one possibly could. Jack Campbell played a pivotal role the past two years for Toronto and helped shape the culture of the team, but Dubas decided they needed a change in goal. They let Soupy walk, and made a trade for Senators' goalie Matt Murray. Ottawa also sent two picks and agreed to return 25% of Murray's salary. Look, I know Murray has two rings, but he is not a better option than Jack Campbell in any way, shape, or form. The only way I can justify this trade is that Dubas want's to maximize the amount of cap space the team has when the trade deadline rolls around. The Leafs also signed former Capitals goalie Ilya Samsonov to a one-year contract. I think Samsonov is a better option than Murray. He was solid during his time with the Caps and I think he can put up similar numbers to Campbell if given the opportunity. But goaltending has been an Achilles heel for this team for years. Are these two guy really the answers?
I want to be optimistic about this Maple Leafs team. I really do. But until the curse is broken and they advance to the second round, I can't say this team is a Stanley Cup contender. It's crazy because on paper they're incredible. Their top six is among the best in the league. They have a more than capable bottom six. They have a strong backend and their powerplay is absurdly good. Most of all, I think Sheldon Keefe is a great coach. Is a curse all that's holding them back from winning? After how well they played against Tampa I really can't pinpoint what they're missing anymore. Regardless, I still think the Leafs are an outstanding hockey club, and I'm hopeful that this is the year where we put the losing narrative to rest. For the sake of Toronto fans who have suffered enough, I'd like to see a run out of these Maple Leafs in 2023. Let's see if they can pull it off.
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